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چکیده
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Iranian family size and structure has undergone major changes in recent decades though several aspects of the family system and its functions have continued. Despite increasing age at marriage and lowering fertility to below-replacement level, family is still regarded highly, and sexual relationship as well as ex-nuptial birth are forbidden within the society. Parental and children’s mutual support has remained strong during the life course. However, with the expansion of education, rise of urbanization and subsequent fertility decline, household structure has shifted to a nuclear one. The age structural transition from a young - to an ageing population has also considerable implications for family and households. Using the ProFamy model, the main aim of this paper is to project the future size and patterns of households in Iran during 2016 and 2051. The results show that the share of nuclear households will decrease in the future (to less than 50% by 2036), and the household size continues its declining trend from 3.3 in 2016 to 2.7 in 2051. Consequently, the share of solo- and single-parent households as well as married couples without children will rise. The age structure of households will also change towards an ageing population, and thus, there will be less potential support within family. However, the speed of change depends upon the norms and values of younger cohorts about family and their relationship with their aged parents. Government policies regarding housing, social and financial support for the elderly, and the degree of compliance with the demands of young cohorts have considerable implications for future household structure in Iran.
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