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چکیده
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This thesis focuses on the development of a mathematical model that will assist in analysing the profitability of recycling photovoltaic technologies at the end of their working life. The research study proposes to use the Monte Carlo simulation and the net present value to assess the outcome of investing in the recycling of decommissioned photovoltaic modules. This evaluating model is applied to assess the risks attached to the recycling of silicon-based photovoltaic solar panels, the investment can either result in losses or profits when uncertain input parameters are used to determine the feasibility of the project. Background literature reviews provided information on the strategies that can be implemented to manage the decommissioned photovoltaic modules, and these strategies include repairing of solar panel, reusing of modules, recycling and recovering of important materials to build new solar modules. While estimated quantities of photovoltaic modules are projected to soon reach over 50 million tonnes, correct mathematical models have to be put together to help in deciding on how to correctly manage the processes after the decommissioning of photovoltaic modules at end of working life. Recycling is chosen as one of the best strategies of managing the anticipated huge volumes of solar panels that will have been de activated, and this process has its advantages and disadvantages where it allows the recovery of important materials that would have been discarded to the landfills and could have caused some environmental problems to both animals and the environment. The purpose of this study was to model and evaluate the resulting net present value for an investment using a process of embedding the Monte Carlo iterative simulation into the discounted cash flow analysis method, this is an efficient process because it allows uncertain and estimated input parameters to be modeled into probability density functions. The developed model shows that Monte Carlo simulation
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