One of the challenging studies about the probability was published by Piaget and Inhelder (1975). They believed that learning mathematics probability is beyond the capabilities of younger children. Some studies supported this belief but there were growing numbers of studies which contrasted that. For example Shaughnessy (1992) said: “Probability concepts can and should be introduced into the school at a fairly early age” (p. 481). Moreover, Principle and Standards of NCTM (2000), as one of the important documents in mathematics education, considers probability as one of its content standards. In Iran, math probability is a new topic in elementary school mathematics curriculum. The aim of this study is to investigate the challenges in introducing this topic in Iranian elementary schools. To this aim, we planned a study in three phases which two of them will be reported here. In the first phase we gathered data from mathematics elementary textbook. We found out that probability starts from grade one implicitly and it continues explicitly in grade two where it comes right after the topic of fractions. From grade three to five probability and statistics come together. In the second phase we interviewed elementary school teachers. Teachers at grade five believed that introducing probability in earlier grades is helpful to teach this subject at higher levels as they have not noticed any serious problem with students' understanding. On the other hand, teachers at grade two reported lots of problems in teaching probability, so they believed this subject should not be taught at such an early stage. In the last phase, we are going to observe teaching process and study the students' understanding directly. Hopefully we are finished the last phase by the time of the conference, PME 40.
