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Abstract
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This paper explores the intricate interplay between demographic transition and its impact on the living arrangements of the elderly. Iran is currently in stage 4 of the first demographic transition, with indications of the second demographic transition emerging. This situation creates conflicting forces influencing family structures. On one hand, traditional values and strict rules, such as the prohibition of cohabitation, extramarital relations, and out-of-wedlock births, exert pressure. On the other hand, modern behaviors, such as a higher mean age at marriage, rising divorce rates, widespread contraceptive use, and generational shifts in family attitudes, contribute to a significant transformation in family dynamics and living arrangements. The demographic landscape of Iran is also undergoing significant changes, with a demographic window opening in 2006 and projected to close by 2050. The nation is poised to become a super-aged country, with 22% of its elderly population by 2050. This rapid aging, one of the fastest globally, poses unique challenges as the percentage of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to double within just 17 years. To anticipate the consequences of these demographic shifts, the paper employs the ProFamy model to project three scenarios: a slow-paced aging scenario, a middle scenario with relatively stable indicators, and a high scenario anticipating accelerated aging. The findings show that regardless of the scenario, Iran's age pyramids in 2050 depict an aging population. Projections suggest a threefold increase in households headed by individuals 65 and older by 2050, exceeding 34 million. Policymakers are urged to consider specific measures to address these demographic challenges, including support for family caregivers, financial assistance and pension systems, nursing homes, and the development of age-friendly housing and cities.
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