Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are qualitative. On the other hand just in few quantitative models, the effects of risks on each other have been not evaluated. In this paper the risk metrics will be modeled in downstream supply chain which is a part of chain related to sale, distribution and products’ costumers. First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing risk metrics of supply chain model and then by combining qualified and quantified metrics, downstream supply chain performance will be measured and key factors will be recognized. Total cost is the most important factor and production cost is the most important criteria which can affect downstream supply chain performance. Also style change between criteria has the least impact and importance. Finally through a case study example, the performance and validation of proposed model will be presented.
