This paper proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian networks (BNs) to the traditional Earned Value (EV) management. BNs provide a framework for presenting causal relationships and enables probabilistic inference among a set of variables. The new approach explicitly quantifies uncertainty in project cost and also provides an appropriate method for modeling complex relationships in project control, such as common causal factors, formal use of experts’ judgments, and learning from data to update previous believes and probabilities. The new capabilities of the proposed approach are explained by a simple example.
