This study aims to analyze the environmental and economic impacts of land use change and water abstraction in the Zarrineh River basin, which is Lake Urmia’s main inflow source in the north-west of Iran. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model water quantity and quality in the basin. Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) are used to assess the relationship between environmental degradation and the development of the agricultural sector. Two scenarios were employed to identify the effects of dam construction and land use change on stream flow, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and nitrate loads in the area. The SWAT model showed a satisfactory to very good performance for monthly stream flow at most of the gauges in calibration and validation periods as well as a reasonable performance for nitrate loads. The estimated EKC indicates that the environmental degradation in the inverted U-shape that has passed its peak and the rate of degradation has decreased. Based on the scenarios, the dam has a strong impact on nitrate loads in the basin and water inflow into Lake Urmia. Results verify that human influences have had negative impacts on the Zarrineh River basin. In particular, the extensive development of the agricultural sector has not only drastically reduced the inflow of water to Lake Urmia accelerating the drying up of the lake, but it has also increased nitrate loads. Therefore, it can be recommended to take counter measures within the catchment area to improve the ecological status of Lake Urmia.
